在结束两天的会议后，北京时间今天凌晨，美联储宣布加息25个基点。
这是2018年以来美国首次加息。
从新闻稿看，联储认为价格压力是普遍的，不只是能源价格，还有劳动力等，目前的失业率已明显下降（2月份美国CPI通胀率为7.9%，40年来最高；失业率为3.8%，已接近疫前水平）。
联储准备从下次会议开始，减少国债和机构债MBS的持有量。
投票委员中，圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard投票加息50个基点。
据FT报道，在会后的记者会上，联储主席鲍威尔谈到加息是为了应对高通胀和紧张的劳动力市场 extremely tight labor market in high inflation.
点阵图（dot plot，投票委员对利率区间的预测）显示，联储官员比三个月前调高了利率预测，预计2022年剩下的时间还将加息6次，2023年加息至少3次。联邦基金利率届时将达到2.8%，高于影响经济增长的“中性位置”（多数官员预测的中性利率为2.4%）。
“美联储传声筒”：美联储的政策声明将受到密切关注:2月1日消息，“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos撰文称，由于美联储不会在本次会议上发布最新的经济或利率预期，其政策声明将受到市场的严格“检查”，以确定声明措辞是否有调整。自美联储去年3月开始加息以来，该声明一直指出，它预计“持续加息将是适当的”。一些经济学家表示，调整措辞的时机可能已经成熟，但其他人认为，美联储将修改声明的其他部分，保持这一指引不变，以避免引发任何其不希望看到的市场反弹。[2023/2/1 11:41:34]
美国CPI（1965-2022）
摩根大通：美联储可能连续九次加息25个基点以抑制通胀:2月19日消息，由摩根大通首席经济学家Bruce Kasman带领的研究小组在一份研报中称，现在预计美联储将在未来9次会议上每次加息25个基点，到明年初政策利率将接近中性立场。在通胀方面，分析师表示，1月美国通胀数据大幅上升“令人意外”，看不到通胀开始从上季度接近创纪录的水平处减速。强劲增长、成本压力和私营部门行为之间可能形成一个\"反馈循环\"，即使当前能源行业价格压力最终消退，这种循环仍将持续。目前面临的最大威胁是各国央行可能会改变政策并认为有必要放缓增长，这可能对全球金融环境产生影响。（金十）[2022/2/19 10:02:50]
美国劳动参与率（1948-2022）
联储新闻稿如下：
March 16, 2022
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
美联储在固定利率逆回购中接纳1.905万亿美元:美联储在固定利率逆回购中接纳了1.905万亿美元，创纪录新高。（金十）[2022/1/1 8:18:10]
Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.
国金证券：非农低于预期不改美联储Taper节奏:10月9日消息，国金证券认为，非农数据表现不如预期不改美联储Taper节奏。虽然美联储对非农的数据并不会满意，但是通胀持续性超预期、9月私营部门的缺口并没有实际数值显示的那么大，不改美联储Taper的路径。后续仍需关注纽联储公布的一级交易商对于缩减购债的预期，若美联储11月正式Taper，市场预期决定了风险资产的波动程度。 （金十）[2021/10/9 20:16:04]
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.
美联储博斯蒂克：加密货币规模不足以对金融系统产生影响:美联储博斯蒂克称，加密货币的规模不足以对金融系统产生影响。[2021/5/20 22:22:31]
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
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